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John,
You're quite right that certain markets haven't experienced the boom
at all. A friend of mine who lives near Buffalo, NY called to ask me
about real estate prices in the D.C. area (I used to live in the D.C.
area although I now live in S. Fla.) because he needed to relocate for
a job. He told me that real estate in his area had not gone up--it may
even have gone down. He would have to sell his nice house for 80 or
90k and buy a similar house for about 350 to 400k. This made it
extremely difficult for him to accept good jobs in boom cities like
Washington, D.C.
On another point, Interest rates have certainly gone up, but we have not
seen a bust yet. That's true, but you have not given the scenario
enough time to play out. Markets peaked here in SFL only 6 months ago
or maybe less. Since then, an incredible inventory buildup has
commenced while sales have fallen to a trickle. I think the same exact
thing is happening in much of CA, AZ, DC and other places. If this
keeps up, I'd think that basic supply and demand would dictate a
price drop. Also, the expiration date for the introductory period on
the time bomb mortages hasn't yet passed for most people--we will need
to wait another year or two. Therefore, I wouldn't count your eggs
yet.
Bill
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Re: Real Estate to slow soon....
